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Buying a Home Abroad

Overseas Property Investor — Tue, 06 Jan 2009 15:49:27 +0000

Buying a home abroad

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Inflation Data – Global Fall in Price

Overseas Property Investor — Wed, 19 Nov 2008 11:27:52 +0000

Inflation Data indicates significant Global Fall in Prices…
The UK Office for National Statistics yesterday reported that the headline inflation rate had its biggest 1-month decline in the past 10 years. The CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 4.5% higher in October compared to a 5.2% annual rise in the year to September. The core CPI number (which does not include price moves in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) also fell, from 2.2% in September to 1.9% in the year to October. Even though the headline figure is still well above the BoE target rate of 2%, the expectation is for similar falls to occur over the next few months. This will enable CPI to hit the 2% by spring next year. The problem then, as flagged and acknowledged by the BoE in its Inflation Report, is that the fall will not stop there and we are quite likely to see the headline rate fall to zero during 2009. This will create a whole new raft of problems for the MPC and Treasury.
This trend in prices data will be mirrored in all the major economies as lower rates and easier commodity prices filter into the respective economies. Therefore expect to see similar falls in inflation in the Eurozone, US and Canada over the coming weeks. Officials around the globe are already beginning to douse expectations for continued large cuts in interest rates with both Trichet and the Fed’s Stern questioning the wisdom and long-term benefits of further large cuts in their respective currencies.
Today we have a fun-packed day in prospect with minutes from both the last meetings of the MPC and Federal Reserve scheduled as well as an anticipated gloomy survey on Industrial Trends from the CBI. This afternoon, prior to the Fed minutes release, we get US CPI and Housing Starts.
The CBI report is likely to make grim reading especially given the recent proliferation of downbeat Corporate trading statements. The survey number itself will undoubtedly hit a new low for this cycle (expected -41 from last month’s -31) but will remain well above the all time low for the survey of -61 recorded back in October 1991. Trouble is that the figure is still heading the wrong way and so the question is now being asked, “Is this recession worse for British Business than the downturn in the early 90s?” This indicator MUST be watched for the answer…..
The MPC minutes are expected to reveal the arguments for the unexpectedly large cut in rates in October – the biggest for 27 years, but more importantly, might reveal the Committee’s inclinations for the upcoming December meeting. The Market view these 2 releases with trepidation and as such have moved Sterling away from its yesterday’s highs. Numbers in line with expectation ought to allow a further move back through 1.50 and a test of 1.20 some time this week. UK LIBOR interest rates continue to edge lower ahead of the minutes.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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“A Lot Done. A Lot More to Do”

Overseas Property Investor — Mon, 10 Nov 2008 11:11:24 +0000

” A lot done. A lot more to do”… was The Labour Party slogan in the 2001 election (courtesy of the Times). And I think that those few words sum up the current situation and the conclusions reached by most pundits in the weekend’s press. (check Google News) The rate cut from the MPC has been widely greeted as being a timely and necessary move, the problem with it however is that in itself, it won’t stave off a recession in the UK or bring forward its termination. We are now left with the baton having been passed across to Government for some degree of fiscal easing to compliment the lower interest rates. China took advantage of a G20 forum in Sao Paolo at the weekend to unveil their own stimulus package – a staggering $590 billion injection over 2-years, and with the world waiting for Barak Obama’s early contribution to kick-starting the US economy, the pressure is very much on Alistair Darling and his pre-Budget speech later this month.
Talking of G20, this get together was very much ground preparation for the meeting in Washington this coming weekend. The communiqué that followed included the statement, ” We affirmed our determination to take all necessary steps to foster non-inflationary growth in a stable and sustainable manner according to the needs and available instruments in our respective countries, including through monetary and fiscal policy” – thanks to HFE for that. The assumption must be that further ‘co-ordinated rate cuts’, a UK Treasury spokesperson’s phrase not mine, will be forthcoming, perhaps as soon as next week following this weekend’s meeting.
This week’s data from the UK looks ominous following the IMF’s grim assessment of the UK economy published last week. Just one month after it forecast that the UK would suffer an annual contraction of 0.1% in 2009, it has downgraded that figure to a shrinkage of GDP by 1.3%, being the worst predicted performer amongst the world’s major economies. Over the next 3 days we have Producer Prices Index, the BRC’s retail survey, trade figures and the RICS house price survey and on Wednesday, employment and earnings numbers and finally the BoE Quarterly Inflation report. It doesn’t look like a good time to be long of Sterling…..
… Talking of which, Sterling has done surprisingly well considering everything that has happened. The currency has held on to its Dollar value following Barak Obama’s election victory and has slipped only slightly against the Euro. One has to assume that the market anticipates the pro-active move last week on interest rates will have a positive effect on the Stock Market and its member companies. As such, foreign demand will be under-pinned. I think this might be a step too far and that the currency needs to weaken before we see a recovery.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Figures confirm US heading towards recession…

Overseas Property Investor — Fri, 31 Oct 2008 09:55:06 +0000

Figures confirm US heading towards recession…

Preliminary GDP data released yesterday showed that the US economy contracted 0.3% in the third quarter, its sharpest decline in seven years, as businesses and consumers reigned in spending as fears of a recession took hold. The market consensus was for a decline of 0.5% so although the 0.3% contraction was the steepest decline since Q3 2001 it was not as bad as expected. Continuing job losses coupled with declining gains from stocks and other investments have put consumers under severe stress. The GDP report showed that disposable personal income dropped 8.7% in the third quarter after rising 11.9% in the second quarter boosted by the US government’s economic stimulus payments.

US Initial jobless claims for the week ending 25 October was left unchanged at 479k, above market expectations for a decrease to 475k. This compares to the revised 479k reading seen in the prior week (prev. 478k)

The Bank of Japan cut its interest rate by 20 basis points to 0.30%, less than the 25 basis point cut widely expected. The yen strengthened however on renewed investor concerns over riskier assets. Asian equity markets returned to negative territory after a week of gains reflecting the gloomy outlook that persists despite interest cuts.

This morning a report showed that German retail sales fell 3.1% in September after a rise of 3.3% in August, some turn around and underpins expectations that the ECB will cut interest rates next week. Gold slipped $3.75 per ounce to $731.75 and is on course for its biggest monthly decline since 1983, as oil also fell on recession fears forcing investors to cash in to stem losses.

Data due today includes Euro zone unemployment at 10:00 GMT, US personal income and spending at 12:30 GMT followed by the Chicago PMI for October at 13:45 GMT.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Another volatile week beckons…

Overseas Property Investor — Mon, 27 Oct 2008 13:34:12 +0000

Sterling fell sharply on Friday, hitting a new record low against the euro and a six-year low against the dollar as intensifying risk aversion and concerns about a weak UK economy weighed heavily on the pound. The euro rose 3% to 81.95 pence, while the pound traded as low as 1.5270 its lowest level against the dollar since 2002. Figures out Friday showed the UK economy contracted by 0.5% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, much worst than forecast. Technically not a recession yet as second quarter growth was flat, however, both Prime Minster Brown and Bank of England Governor King have suggested that the UK is already in recession and therefore we should expect further negative growth in the fourth quarter.

The yen extended gains against the dollar and euro on Friday. The dollar fell to a 13-year low of 90.95 yen while the euro fell more than 10% to a low of 113.82 yen. However, the Japanese currency fell back just before New York markets opened on speculation the Bank of Japan may have intervened to curb the yen’s rise. While intervention would not trigger a change in trend it could contribute to a stablisation of the market and would be consistent with the G7’s position of only intervening in disorderly markets.

Oil prices continued to ease despite a decision taken by OPEC at an emergency meeting on Friday to cut production by 1.5m barrels per day. West Texas crude traded as low as $62.85 on Friday, down 3.7% on the day and a whopping 57% decline compared to its peak of $147.27 back in July. Gold was also trading lower at $680 losing nearly 6% of its value on Friday and 31% down from its peak of $987 in July.

Focus this week will be on interest rates. There are strong expectations that US rates will be cut by at least 50 basis points when the Federal Reserve announce their rate decision on Wednesday. Both the Bank of England and the European Central Bank are also likely to cut rates at their policy meetings scheduled for next week although it would not be a total surprise if they reduced rates early in a coordinated move with the Fed.

Credit pressures on the emerging market economies continue to increase with the IMF agreeing over the weekend to provide Ukraine with USD16bn of loans with talks between the IMF and Hungary in an advanced stage.

This week we have several key economic reports due including later today the German IFO business confidence index, US consumer confidence on Tuesday, FOMC rate decision on Wednesday and US Q3 GDP data on Thursday. The US economy is forecast to have contracted by 0.5% in the 3rd quarter and it is concerns over growth that will trigger the expected rate cut by the Fed on Wednesday.While care has been taken in the preparation of the information contained in this publication, it is a general guide and readers should not rely on any information contained in it in relation to a specific issue without taking financial, investment, banking or other professional advice.

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Bernanke comments give the markets hope

Overseas Property Investor — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 09:34:53 +0000

Yesterday’s fairly restrained market was kick-started into life in the afternoon by comments from the Federal Reserve Chief, seemingly directed at Congress, in which he intimated that the US economy required a new fiscal stimulus to get it back on track. Both the Dollar and the Stock Market rallied with the Euro hitting a new 18-month low this morning. Cable also briefly fell below 1.7100 but early morning jitters have halted the Dollar’s early progress. Technically, there is strong potential for a further immediate strengthening of the US currency, especially if doubts persist as to the likelihood of a turn around in the UK and Eurozone economies.
LIBOR interest rates continued to correct – rapidly in the Dollar’s case, but in a more sedate manner in Euro and Sterling. The freeing up of the Money Markets is vital to an economic pick up so expect further Central Bank measures to keep the momentum going. Expectations for huge liquidity adds plus continued official rate cuts should keep the momentum going but it is a return to confidence between Money Market operators that will determine whether period lending resumes.
Talking of economic stimulus, the UK, as expected, reported Government borrowing at a record level last month with September’s figure surging to £8.1 billion, almost double the number from 12-months ago. Estimates for the total for the year are for an excess of a massive £60 billion, with rises in the deficit for the following 2-years. With the assertion from Brown yesterday that the UK was looking to stave off a continued slide into recession by spending, plus the additional funding required to fund the Financial Market’s bail-out plan, these borrowing figures look destined to deteriorate before any improvement for increased tax revenues are seen. That’s not to say that this is not the right way forward for the UK economy in the short term. Bringing forward Government construction projects to stimulate and underpin the UK building and civil engineering sectors could certainly prove to be inspirational. The problem is that despite having a fistful of factors that they are able to influence, the UK Government is unable to do anything about the one thing that is fundamental to the economy’s recovery. That is increasing consumer demand from its current lows. Confidence is at such a low that even if No. 10 were able to slash interest rates, it is going to be some time before the consumer returns to the High Street in any numbers. It looks as though it is going to be a long winter……
Elsewhere, Iceland becomes the first sovereign state since the UK in 1976 to go cap in hand to the lender of last resorts, the IMF. For those of you old enough to remember the results in the UK following the IMF loan, the restrictions likely to be imposed upon Iceland will be draconian making redemption of the frozen deposits (no pun intended) a distant prospect.
Also, more Central Bank assistance for the Banking Sector with the French injecting funds into their larger institutions with the Saudis also adding liquidity by placing deposits with domestic Banks.
Today we are largely data free although the UK CBI quarterly industrial trends survey plus the Nationwide regional consumer confidence survey should make interesting reading – unlikely to be positive for Sterling however. The major ‘news event’ today will be any info on the Lehman CDS settlement figures and especially with regards to the institutions involved. As expressed yesterday, the numbers are still unknown so both stock and money markets will be influenced on any headlines.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Equities Tumble as Congress Rejects Plan

Overseas Property Investor — Tue, 30 Sep 2008 13:17:49 +0000

Equities Tumble as Congress Rejects Plan

Yesterday saw government intervention across the globe on an unprecedented scale. Fortis, Bradford & Bingley, Wachovia, Glitnir and Germany’s Hypo Real Estate all requiring external support. Furthermore, central banks pumped a further $330bn into the system in another attempt to provide liquidity to global money markets.
All eyes were on the US last night as Paulson’s Emergency Economic Stabilization Act of 2008 went to vote. Surprisingly, the $700bn proposal which was backed by the Bush administration and leaders of both parties, was rejected by the House of Representatives by a vote of 228 to 205. The rejection caused US equity markets to fall sharply. Markets across Asia also closed markedly lower, underlining the fact that the financial problems are not restricted to Wall Street.
In terms of economic releases, yesterday’s Bank of England mortgage data reported the first fall in mortgage debt since records began in 1993. Although August is generally the quietest month for house sales, last month saw only 32,000 mortgage approvals – 70% fewer than a year ago, suggesting that the decline in house sales and prices will continue into next year. The European Commission’s report showing that sentiment fell to a more-than-expected 87.7 in September also weighed on the euro.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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Overseas Property Investor — Mon, 29 Sep 2008 13:37:19 +0000

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