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Inflation Data indicates significant Global Fall in Prices…
The UK Office for National Statistics yesterday reported that the headline inflation rate had its biggest 1-month decline in the past 10 years. The CPI year-on-year rate was reported at 4.5% higher in October compared to a 5.2% annual rise in the year to September. The core CPI number (which does not include price moves in energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) also fell, from 2.2% in September to 1.9% in the year to October. Even though the headline figure is still well above the BoE target rate of 2%, the expectation is for similar falls to occur over the next few months. This will enable CPI to hit the 2% by spring next year. The problem then, as flagged and acknowledged by the BoE in its Inflation Report, is that the fall will not stop there and we are quite likely to see the headline rate fall to zero during 2009. This will create a whole new raft of problems for the MPC and Treasury.
This trend in prices data will be mirrored in all the major economies as lower rates and easier commodity prices filter into the respective economies. Therefore expect to see similar falls in inflation in the Eurozone, US and Canada over the coming weeks. Officials around the globe are already beginning to douse expectations for continued large cuts in interest rates with both Trichet and the Fed’s Stern questioning the wisdom and long-term benefits of further large cuts in their respective currencies.
Today we have a fun-packed day in prospect with minutes from both the last meetings of the MPC and Federal Reserve scheduled as well as an anticipated gloomy survey on Industrial Trends from the CBI. This afternoon, prior to the Fed minutes release, we get US CPI and Housing Starts.
The CBI report is likely to make grim reading especially given the recent proliferation of downbeat Corporate trading statements. The survey number itself will undoubtedly hit a new low for this cycle (expected -41 from last month’s -31) but will remain well above the all time low for the survey of -61 recorded back in October 1991. Trouble is that the figure is still heading the wrong way and so the question is now being asked, “Is this recession worse for British Business than the downturn in the early 90s?” This indicator MUST be watched for the answer…..
The MPC minutes are expected to reveal the arguments for the unexpectedly large cut in rates in October – the biggest for 27 years, but more importantly, might reveal the Committee’s inclinations for the upcoming December meeting. The Market view these 2 releases with trepidation and as such have moved Sterling away from its yesterday’s highs. Numbers in line with expectation ought to allow a further move back through 1.50 and a test of 1.20 some time this week. UK LIBOR interest rates continue to edge lower ahead of the minutes.

The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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 ” A lot done. A lot more to do”… was The Labour Party slogan in the 2001 election (courtesy of the Times). And I think that those few words sum up the current situation and the conclusions reached by most pundits in the weekend’s press. (check Google News)  The rate cut from the MPC has been widely greeted as being a timely and necessary move, the problem with it however is that in itself, it won’t stave off a recession in the UK or bring forward its termination. We are now left with the baton having been passed across to Government for some degree of fiscal easing to compliment the lower interest rates. China took advantage of a G20 forum in Sao Paolo at the weekend to unveil their own stimulus package – a staggering $590 billion injection over 2-years, and with the world waiting for Barak Obama’s early contribution to kick-starting the US economy, the pressure is very much on Alistair Darling and his pre-Budget speech later this month.
Talking of G20, this get together was very much ground preparation for the meeting in Washington this coming weekend. The communiqué that followed included the statement, ” We affirmed our determination to take all necessary steps to foster non-inflationary growth in a stable and sustainable manner according to the needs and available instruments in our respective countries, including through monetary and fiscal policy” – thanks to HFE for that. The assumption must be that further ‘co-ordinated rate cuts’, a UK Treasury spokesperson’s phrase not mine, will be forthcoming, perhaps as soon as next week following this weekend’s meeting.
This week’s data from the UK looks ominous following the IMF’s grim assessment of the UK economy published last week. Just one month after it forecast that the UK would suffer an annual contraction of 0.1% in 2009, it has downgraded that figure to a shrinkage of GDP by 1.3%, being the worst predicted performer amongst the world’s major economies. Over the next 3 days we have Producer Prices Index, the BRC’s retail survey, trade figures and the RICS house price survey and on Wednesday, employment and earnings numbers and finally the BoE Quarterly Inflation report. It doesn’t look like a good time to be long of Sterling…..
… Talking of which, Sterling has done surprisingly well considering everything that has happened. The currency has held on to its Dollar value following Barak Obama’s election victory and has slipped only slightly against the Euro. One has to assume that the market anticipates the pro-active move last week on interest rates will have a positive effect on the Stock Market and its member companies. As such, foreign demand will be under-pinned. I think this might be a step too far and that the currency needs to weaken before we see a recovery.
The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Currencies Direct cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information.

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